The surprisingly boring road to self-driving cars
it’s finally here! The truly self-driving car, not a person behind the wheel! For the public! …A couple of hundred of them, in a closed beta, in a small corner of the sun-drenched (never snow drenched, almost never water poured over it) were a suburb of Phoenix, five years later, when some of the people, predicting six years ago.
Some of the new technologies have always expected more and more predicted as the self-driving car. Who’s driving, can not help but imagine, to ride no more. It has been said that you will change our cities, our houses, our trade, our basic way of life.
But seemed at the same time, the actual progress … well … the glacier on the volatile driver’s eye. We are mainly talking about the software, after all. OK, and LIDAR, and cameras, but the software is the key. People couldn’t help but expect a roll-out, such as smartphones, where the introduction of the iPhone in 2007 led to the adoption of any technically skilled person, the of 2010, and the vast majority of the developed world by the year 2013.
people couldn’t help but expect a mass pushing on the market. In the year 2014, which was the optimistic attitude, maybe your next car is electric; then your next one — or even the same, update courtesy of an OTA-software-to — self! Set the controls for the heart of Los Angeles, or Boston, or both, and sit back and snooze baby.
That’s not how it will happen. Waymo is the closed beta is a huge, Yes, Yes, but it is also a small, incremental iteration. We’re not going to see a Big Bang moment, when all of a sudden you buy your next car and it will carry you without the help of Vancouver to Halifax or from Vancouver to Whistler. Instead, we will see a series of small steps forward, measured over years, often in industrial and commercial settings, rather than personal ones.
First, shut down the wide, Sunny streets of Phoenix; then highways, and then in more complex situations, such as airports and inner cities; then heavy rain; then in the midst of diversions and road closures; then, in rough, winding country roads, prone to landslides and floods; then (some considerable time now, says its Canadian correspondent) in the snow and ice…
And even then, how can a truly self-driving car does not handle anomalous situations, if the car knows what to do and screeches to a halt? More importantly, how will it know it is in an exceptional situation, and he does not know what to do? Cars are mobile at a distance, in such cases? If Yes, how are we to secure that process? What is controversial experiments on the Manipulation of neural networks, do not notice, behind the picture wheel by feeding misleading inputs, to which you respond, but the naked eye, perhaps?
I suppose we need to talk about the so-called “trolley problem”. I’d rather not. It is by far the dumbest and most overanalyzed of the question itself, since in 99.9% of the problematic situations, the solution is to simply “stop”. Something like the trolley problem is only in the edgiest of the borderline cases — but, if only the General public, to knobelte the cases to the public, as well.
The bigger Problem brought up by the “trolley problem” is that we should not accept a common social understanding of how to assess the risks of self-driving cars, and what risks we. On paper, if all moved from America to self-driving, the death rate due to auto-like cars overnight, and they began killing 100 people every day … America should be glad, because of accidents!
In practice, however, it is decent, it seems likely that America, or at least American media, will not be happy. Rather to the contrary.
If you make the move to a self-driving vehicle, a you the risk, just like you do when you step in a human driven vehicle. But it is more difficult to measure this new threat, and even if/when we can, we will not weigh the same way that we old risk. So the human nature is. The liability alone is a huge can of worms.
We have created a complete infrastructure, the regulation, the old risk. It will change only slowly to this new threat, and it will not have great difficulty in sloughing off old prejudices apply. Dream cars without steering wheels all you like, for example, but my guess is that in many countries, self-driving cars, a legal basis driver from your passengers at all times.
If you consider the combination of the technological challenges, social challenges, and regulatory challenges, all of which are seriously non-trivial — it seems obvious that we are going to crawl, rather than bound, in the self-driving future.
And so: self-driving vehicles will be slowly, quietly, take over the closed industrial / commercial settings. Waymo is itself followed by driving taxis, (apparently some distance away), the other, very gradually they extend their bridge-head of Phoenix, bit by bit, and in climate through the area, with occasional setbacks. Personal cars will continue to increase its self-driving functions in a situation of the time: Parking, stop-and-go traffic, Parking garages, certain patches of quiet suburban area.
that means That it will almost certainly be no point where you suddenly have a self-driving car. Self-driving is not a product, an event or a function; it is an ambitious limit to which we approach asymptotically. Together we are already on the curve — this is exciting! — but it seems obvious that his ascent thought a lot more gradually than almost everyone, including me, for so long.
Released on Sun, 03 Nov 2019 14:00:47 +0000